April 4, 2005Security

If the Kashmir bus is attacked

Two scenarios and implications

This is an archived blog post from The Acorn.

The Indian and Pakistani governments have agreed to operate a bus service between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad, across the Line of Control (LoC) dividing the parts of Jammu & Kashmir they administer. Technically, the any citizen of India or Pakistan is eligible to cross the LoC using documents issued by the local governments on the respective side of the LoC, but the administrative process is tweaked to favour residents of Jammu & Kashmir. Pakistan — using the rubber-stamp parliament of Pakistan-occupied (‘Azad’) Kashmir — insists that while the bus service is open to the Kashmiri people, their elected representatives will not be allowed to use it. This position is designed to counter a potential Indian objection to the unelected charlatans of the Hurriyat from taking the bus.

For their part, jihadi groups have threatened to attack the bus and its passengers. Even before their names fell into the hands of terrorists, the passengers had enough reason to be scared, and the government of India to be worried for their safety. In sharp contrast, passengers from the Pakistani side do not face any security problem.

If the bus makes its journey unmolested across the Line of Control, security forces will breathe a sigh of relief, many people will succumb to histrionics and politicians will succumb to words like historic’. If, however, terrorists succeed in attacking the bus, several implications obtain.

If attacks occur in Indian territory:

If attacks occur in Pakistani territory:

Clearly, India has a lot more to lose should the bus be attacked by terrorists. That’s one reason it is sparing little effort in securing the route. In the event of an attack, especially on the Indian side, Pakistan’s and Musharraf’s image will take a hit. It is not in Musharraf’s current interests to suffer a loss of face, not least when he’s folding his sherwanis for his visit to India. For that reason, an attack on the bus is unlikely.

Tailpiece: The Pakistani Foreign Office spokesman termed the threats by jihadis uncalled for” because the passengers are genuine” Kashmiris on their way to meet their loved ones. By implication, it’s plain that the Pakistani Foreign Office at least thinks that such threats would be called for if the passengers were Indians from anywhere else.



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